Greenhouse gas emissions under different socio-economic and climate policy scenarios for Switzerland
In Switzerland, resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are primarily driven by the economy, energy production, transport, agriculture and consumption. Scientifically based scenarios and models demonstrate how these emissions could evolve – and be reduced – under various social, economic and political circumstances. Exploratory socio-economic and climate policy scenarios are used to evaluate and compare potential outcomes. The future cannot be predicted with certainty, and uncertainty increases with the length of the time horizon and the complexity of the system. However, considering ‘if-then’ scenarios enables policy decisions to be better aligned with different possible futures.
Switzerland has a long tradition of scenario work to support policy-making. Examples include climate scenarios, population, GDP and industry scenarios, long-term perspectives for public finances, the Federal Chancellery’s prospective work on situation and environment analysis, and transport and energy perspectives. The latter, for example, focus on energy and climate policy issues with a time horizon of up to 2050, considering a narrow range of possible socio-economic developments.