The Eastern Mediterranean Marine Environment Under Climate Pressure: Risks, Impacts, and Priorities for Action
The Eastern Mediterranean is widely recognised as one of the world's climate change hotspots and is warming significantly faster than the global average. Its marine environment - one of the region’s most valuable shared resources - is increasingly exposed to interacting pressures from rising temperatures, marine heatwaves, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, altered circulation patterns, declining oxygen concentrations, invasive species, and growing anthropogenic pressures. These changes threaten biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, fisheries, aquaculture, coastal infrastructure, tourism, cultural heritage, and broader socioeconomic resilience across the region.
The evidence reviewed indicates that observed changes in the Eastern Mediterranean are accelerating and, in several respects, appear to be evolving at rates closer to higher emission scenarios than previously anticipated. The region is warming at nearly twice the global average, while marine heatwaves have increased markedly in frequency, duration, and intensity. Recent observations suggest that several indicators already approach or exceed lower bound projections previously associated with later periods of the century.
Sea-level rise poses major medium to long-term risks to coastal populations, infrastructure, agriculture, tourism, and cultural heritage. While global mean sea- level rise remains the dominant driver, local effects - including land subsidence, sediment depletion, and storm surges - can substantially amplify impacts. Current evidence suggests that planning assumptions based on approximately one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 may provide a more prudent basis for adaptation planning than lower estimates commonly used in earlier assessments.