Cooling a hotter world: El Niño meets strong growth in global electricity demand
Over the past five years, the world has experienced some of its hottest years on record, and meteorologists are warning that El Niño – a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters – could drive a new series of extreme weather events in 2026 and 2027. This comes as the adoption of air conditioning around the world has already been accelerating – the result of rising incomes in many economies with hot climates and record-breaking heatwaves in regions that previously had only limited cooling demand. As extreme heat events become more frequent and widespread, perceptions of cooling are shifting, driving more consumers to consider purchasing an air conditioner (AC). At the same time, falling unit prices and elevated inventories across the supply chain are lowering barriers to AC adoption, suggesting that the number of households purchasing their first AC unit will reach new highs in the years ahead.
Rising cooling demand this year is taking place in the context of a global energy crisis that disrupted around 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and gas trade and caused spikes in energy prices in many regions. Concerns about the availability of natural gas for peaks in electricity generation during heat waves, alongside affordability pressures, have prompted several governments – particularly in Asia – to introduce energy conservation measures. Eight countries have introduced measures related to cooling since March 2026. Bangladesh, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Sri Lanka have set minimum AC temperatures in offices, ranging from 24 °C to 26 °C. Jordan has restricted AC use in public offices, while the Seychelles government has asked public offices to switch off the AC once a week.
This speaks to the challenge that rising power demand for cooling poses for electricity systems around the world. Global electricity demand for space cooling1has grown by 50% since 2015, rising to around 2 900 terawatt-hours – more than the total electricity demand of the entire European Union. Since 2015, cooling has accounted for 14% of global electricity demand growth while reaching as much as 25% in the Middle East and North Africa region. In 2025, it contributed 1 400 gigawatts of peak electricity demand across markets, equivalent to the total installed power generation capacity of the United States.
Electricity demand is also being driven higher by the expansion and electrification of industry, rising electric vehicle uptake, the rapid growth of data centres, and the electrification of other end-uses. Fuelled by growth across uses, electricity demand reached record-high levels in 2025 and increased at well over twice the rate of overall energy demand, putting additional pressure on power systems and strengthening the focus on electricity security for countries around the world.
